Louis René Beres
Israel, Iran and Nuclear War: Deciphering Science-based Scenarios
“Science, by which I mean the entire body of knowledge about things, whether corporeal or spiritual, is as much a work of imagination as it is of observation.”
Jose Ortega y’Gasset, Man and Crisis (1958)
At...
Time for less ambiguous Israeli nuclear deterrence
First the “good news.” In its escalating war with Iran, Israel still faces “only” a non-nuclear adversary. This means that during episodes of competitive risk-taking, only Israel could reasonably expect to achieve “escalation dominance.”
Now...
Navigating The Middle East from Israeli Waters: Terrorism, Survival And International Law
"Oh ship of state, new waves push you out to sea...."
Horace, Odes
From the beginning, Israel’s ship of state has had to navigate rough waters. Today, the force-multiplying “seas” of jihadi terrorism and Iranian nuclearization...
Israel, Syria and the false legality of jihadi terror
President Donald Trump announced earlier this month that the United States will cease sanctions against Syria “to give them a chance at greatness.” As part of that statement, Trump chortled to Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed...
Time and Strategy in Israeli Security Policy
Whether the objective is war-winning, war-avoidance or counter-terrorism, Israel should always assess its survival options “in time.” This will require more than usual national defense policy preoccupations with chronology – for example, present day...
Hamas, Not Israel, Is Legally Responsible for Civilian Harm in Gaza
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It is the obligation of every state to enforce the law of nations. This means there is a universal legal responsibility to support Israel’s ongoing counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East. Though it...
Force-multiplying Perils: Israel, “Palestine” and Regional Nuclear War
When identifying the axioms of geometry, our eighth-grade mathematics teachers were not entirely correct. To wit, in both physics and world politics, force-multiplication (“synergy”) creates a whole that is greater than the sum of...
America’s Greatest Nuclear Threat Isn’t Intentional – It’s Inadvertent
In this unstable era of belligerent nationalism, America’s greatest survival peril is inadvertent nuclear war. More than ever before, especially during certain tangible crises, the United States is apt to rely on variously complex...
The unravelling of civilization: Egocentric ideals and world politics
Since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, world politics has been shaped by sovereignty-centered competition and intermittent war. Considered over time, especially as technologies of destruction become more accessible and less discriminate, this seventeenth-century system of...
A legal memorandum: Condemning Putin’s crimes against Ukraine is an obligation of American and...
By refusing to condemn Vladimir Putin’s egregious crimes against Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump is undermining core expectations of both American law and international law. Because international law is part of the law of...