In southeastern Pennsylvania, Democratic U.S. Rep. Chrissy Houlihan of Chester County is entitled to feel more confident about re-election next year. Not so her Republican colleague in nearby Bucks County, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.
While Houlihan was sent to Congress for her first term in 2018, Fitzpatrick survived his re-election campaign at the time with 51 percent of the vote – evidently thanks to Jewish voters.
Fitzpatrick lucked out with two advantages last year. He did not run on the same ticket with a reviled president, who already lost Fitzpatrick’s district to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and he was blessed with a challenge from a flawed candidate who antagonized Jewish voters who might have otherwise voted for a Democrat.
Last Nov. 5, a political tsunami ravaged the Philadelphia area that years ago few people thought could ever happen. Democrats took over county government in three of the four suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia – Bucks, Chester and Delaware counties. Montgomery County turned Democrat eight years ago, and Philadelphia has been solidly Democrat for the past 70 years. In fact, Lehigh and Monroe counties to the north also flipped.
What transpired in eastern Pennsylvania may signal a far fiercer omen for President Trump’s re-election hopes than the much-touted results in Virginia and Kentucky. Pennsylvania is among three states that Trump unexpectedly won by narrow margins in 2016 that he must win again to be re-elected. Or that any Republican presidential nominee needs, considering that Trump now faces an impeachment process.
The five counties comprise 2.2 million people, and Republicans flipped counties with a combined population of 1 million. This means Trump will have a far harder time finding up to 44,000 votes that would put him over the top in Pennsylvania as they did in 2016.
These elections follow those in 2018 when Pennsylvanians re-elected Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Robert P. Casey, both Democrats, while Democratic governors were elected in the other states, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Kentucky replaced its Republican governor, Matt Bevin, with a Democrat, Steve Beshear, while Democrats in Virginia won control of both chambers of their legislature. Bevin is a very unpopular figure in Kentucky, and his defeat could have had little to do with Republican fortunes nationwide. Virginians voted for Clinton in 2016 and they are represented by two Democrats in the Senate, and likewise their current governor is a Democrat.
No doubt the Jewish vote contributed to Democratic gains in Philadelphia’s suburbs. The Jewish presence in Montgomery County has long been substantial and in recent years expanded northwards. Delaware County has had a smaller but steady Jewish population. In recent decades, the Jewish population has grown in Chester County and skyrocketed in Bucks County.
In a very tight election, the Jewish vote might swing a contest in either direction in Pennsylvania and Florida. Roughly 75 to 80 percent of Jews vote for Democrats, and there is a segment of those Jewish voters who would switch if they believe that a Democrat’s policies might be detrimental to Israel.
This could happen in the presidential race and be replicated in Bucks County, home to an estimated 50,000 Jews clustered in the southern part of the county. The county’s population is 623,000.
Fitzpatrick’s opponent in 2018, Scott Wallace, was perceived as anti-Israel after news broke that his foundation contributed hundreds of thousands in funds to organizations that promote the boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign aimed at harming Israel’s economy. Republicans swiftly sponsored advertisements notifying Bucks voters of the foundation’s contributions. Jewish Democratic Rep. Scott Gottheimer, who represents the northern edge of New Jersey, helped Fitzpatrick demonstrate his support for Israel. Fitzpatrick was re-elected with 51 percent of the vote.
Political observers blamed Wallace’s weak campaign. That’s probably true, but they neglected to mention the attitudes of Jewish voters in Bucks County. If nothing else, I believe the Jewish vote saved Fitzpatrick’s political career.
Even President Obama ran afoul of the Jewish vote in 2012. After numerous concerns were raised about his approach to Israel during his first term, he received 67 percent of the Jewish vote nationwide – relatively low for a Democratic presidential candidate.
On Nov. 3, 2020, Fitzpatrick’s worst nightmare will be running against a Democrat without Israel-related baggage while the Democratic nominee for president also lacks such baggage. The Democrat running against Fitzpatrick would benefit from the county’s new liberal voting pattern and will probably be helped by the Democratic presidential candidate’s coattails.
Suppose that the presidential election will hinge on Pennsylvania, where the race is extremely close. Someone like Wallace is running against Fitzpatrick and the Democratic nominee for president has prompted concerns about his/her Israeli policies. Under this scenario, Bucks County voters could send Fitzpatrick back to Congress and even determine the presidential contest, which might mean keeping Trump in the White House for a second term.
That is a remote but realistic possibility. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts prodded suspicions when she suggested that military aid to Israel might be endangered by Israeli government settlement expansion in the West Bank. Warren has a genuine opportunity to be nominated as the Democratic candidate in the presidential general election for Nov. 3, 2020. If Warren cannot dispel these suspicions by then, the next president could be a Republican.
At this stage, this is strictly hypothetical. The election may be close, but I do not expect it to be so tight that American Jews like myself will have this kind of power. I fully expect a Democrat to win the presidency; the House’s Democratic majority to expand; and the Democrats to retrieve majority control of the Senate with a net gain of at least three seats.
As I make a point to clarify in predicting elections, circumstances could change and I could be wrong. For this coming election, circumstances have already changed. Once-bleak prospects for the Republicans persist in becoming bleaker. After the takeover of the three suburban county governments, the future looks just as bleak for Republicans in Bucks County.
Republished from San Diego Jewish World