A “perfect storm” of factors came together to enable the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage agreement, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, former Israeli National Security Advisor, has stated in recent days. In the deal brokered by the Trump administration and several Arab countries, Hamas has agreed to release all 20 living Israeli hostages in exchange for a partial Israel Defense Forces withdrawal (Israel remains in control of 53% of Gaza) and an Israeli release of around 2,000 Palestinian security prisoners.

Amidror was speaking during an Oct. 9 virtual event hosted by the Washington D.C.-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), where he is a distinguished fellow.

“The whole Iranian strategy collapsed. They lost the proxies, they lost the bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean. They are very vulnerable and they understand they don’t have any shield if the Israelis and Americans decide to renew the war,” he said. “They are out of the stage, they are not there,” said Amidror, explaining one critical factor that enabled the deal.

He also cited relentless IDF pressure on Hamas in Gaza, and the impact of the Sept. 9 Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, which, while not operational success, sent a powerful message. “I believe that the operation in Doha, which was not successful from the intelligence point of view, all of the leaders probably got out of the operation… shook the Qataris, telling them, guys, you lost your immunity. If we decide that this is going with the interests of Israel, we will do it,” said Amidror. He concluded that this, combined with pressure from an Arab world eager for stability and the relentless IDF ground operation closing in on Gaza City, pushed Hamas to the table.

However, while Phase One of the agreement is clear, Amidror warned that Phase Two—concerning the demilitarization of Hamas and future governance of Gaza—is fraught with uncertainty. He called the second phase the “main challenge” due to its “very vague” language. He asserted that if Hamas is perceived to be stalling negotiations, a return to hostilities is a distinct possibility.

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