U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory generated a collective sigh of relief for many, especially in Israel. After four years of destructive and misguided American foreign policy, Israelis look forward to an administration that believes firmly in peace through strength, and anticipate that Trump’s return to the White House will mean a period of true partnership and reduced tension.
However, with two months left until Trump’s inauguration, some Israelis are worried that President Joe Biden will replicate President Barack Obama’s parting shot at Israel. Before leaving office at the end of his second term, Obama allowed the passage of U.N. Resolution 2334 declaring Judaism’s holiest site “occupied Palestinian territory.”
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told JNS it’s “hard to know, since Biden’s situation is far more complicated than Obama’s.”
“Biden has a bone to pick with his own colleagues in the Democratic Party and possibly with Obama, who prevailed upon him to pull his candidacy and allow Vice President Kamala Harris to run” in his stead, said Diker.
In fact, Biden’s parting shot might not be against Israel, but against Iran, he added.
“Biden is a dyed in the wool Irish Zionist by his own declaration, and that’s a very meaningful statement,” Diker told JNS. “This is a man who truly loves Israel and the Jewish people. In order to establish a legacy of courage and moral clarity we might see him take action with Israel against Iran.”
Diker pointed out that since Iran has lost two key proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as its air defense systems, it has been “softened and compromised,” opening up a real opportunity to take out part of if not all of its nuclear program.
“It’s not beyond Biden to say ‘now is the time,’ to leave a legacy of strength,” said Diker.
At the same time, Biden may instead seek to punish Israel on the settlement issue.
“Biden has people around him who are fiercely hostile to Israel,” said Diker.
The Biden administration could level sanctions against Israel by enacting Memorandum 20, legislation that ties military aid to humanitarian assistance. State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters on Tuesday that the United States would not, as of yet, limit military aid to Israel as Jerusalem had made sufficient progress in delivering aid to Palestinians in Gaza.
But that could change in the next few weeks.
For instance, the Biden administration has reportedly frozen the shipment to Israel of over 100 D9 bulldozers, which Israel needs to fight both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
This move only prolongs the war the Biden administration insists it wants Israel to end.
There is also a possibility that the State Department might recognize the Palestinian Authority as a full member state of the United Nations.
If so, “It wouldn’t change anything on the ground other than making Israel’s life more difficult in the U.N.,” said Diker.
Trump has declared several times that he is looking to end wars, but he also recognizes Iran is the cause behind the wars in the Middle East.
While Biden and his foreign policy team pursued an integrated Middle East with Iran playing a constructive and stabilizing role, Trump and Netanyahu reportedly see eye-to-eye on Iran and instead believe it is the source of instability in the region.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, told JNS that Trump “does not want wars.”
Yet Trump may agree that the way to end the wars raging in the region is to eliminate Iran’s ability to start them.
According to Oren, “He will be very hard on Iran, will reinstate punishing sanctions and will place all options on the table.”
Trump has already established himself as a president who understands the reality of the Middle East.
During his first term, Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel and reversed the 1978 Hansell Memorandum, which had declared settlements as violating international law.
These moves not only made Trump the most pro-Israel president in history, but also demonstrated that Israel’s most trusted ally could also be led by a realist who correctly perceives Israel’s position in the Middle East, understands the history of the region and deadly threats against the Jewish state.
Trump’s team spent a lot of time working on a “Deal of the Century” peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.
While there was concern in the past that Trump would want to deliver such a deal in his second term, after Oct. 7, 2023, it is even less likely, especially since a majority of Palestinians, 64% in Judea and Samaria, continue to support terrorism, as noted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR).
According to the PCPSR, “a majority of Palestinians continues to view Hamas’s decision to carry out the Oct. 7 attack as ‘correct.’”
Assuming there will be no practical movement on another deal with the Palestinians as long as they reject it, many Israelis, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would like to see Israel annex the entire area of Judea and Samaria.
According to Oren, Trump “does not want to see Israel annexing land” and is against “unfettered settlement building.”
However, Trump is likely to forge a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and as part of the need to address the Saudi demand to couple it with a pathway to a Palestinian state, the president-elect could also allow some Israeli annexation and building in Judea and Samaria.
“There are many opportunities here,” Oren said of Trump’s second term.
Until then, we will need to see what Biden does in his last two months in office.
The next few weeks will reveal whether Biden truly loves Israel, or whether he will repeat Obama’s error.
“I hope he doesn’t do that, because it would only leave his Zionist legacy in tatters,” said Diker. “For someone who calls himself a Zionist to recognize the terror-supporting Palestinian Authority as a state [for example], would shatter his own declaration as a Zionist and turn him into one of the historical opponents of Israel and the Jewish people.”