Iran’s strategy to victory over its rivals is not dissimilar to its on-again off-again political foil and mentor, Russia. It has utilized divide and conquer tactics to spread mistrust, paranoia, and disunity among its own population, infiltrating the opposition with spies, turning the country into a national security mechanism, and creating a separation among centrally based Persians and non-Persian nations residing largely in peripheral ares of the country. By labeling all non-Persians as separatists and fifth columnists, and by cultivating ethnocentrism among the rest, Iran has succeeded in ensuring that the two groups, despite having a common interest in overthrowing a regime that has been throttling the country for decades, would not work together, and would consider each other as much of a problem as the ayatollahs.
It has used the same tactic abroad, to silence genuine opposition. Through successful lobbying, propaganda, and infiltration of Iranian human rights organizations, major Western law firms, corporations, and government agencies, Iran managed to assert control over the discourse concerning its own human rights violations, promoting only convenient dissenters,, and intimidating anyone who refuses to play the game. NY Times has been one of the largest contributors to Iran’s successful game to shut out true dissenters. Its trips to Iran with donors and subscribers may have had a little something to do with the newspaper’s fervent support for the nuclear deal, the whitewashing of President Rouhani, and its belated and minimalist coverage of recent protests.
Most recent one-sided pro-Qatar coverage of the Gulf Crisis likewise shows that the Gray Lady is far from neutral when it comes to geopolitics. However, Iran’s strategy is far more expansive than merely buying off some newspapers. After all, its rivals are doing pretty much the same thing. Rather, the divide and conquer strategy is aimed to create chaos, separate allies from each other in peace and in war, and exploit and increase existing divisions among everyone who could even potentially be a problem. And Qatar is just one of the tools. Those who think that ending the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar is an end in and of itself are mistaken. Perhaps it is the case for the the anti-Iran Quartet (KSA, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt), and maybe even for Qatar herself, but Iran sees in this division an opportunity.
Divisions inside the Jewish community
Iran sees Jews, not just Israel, as an enemy. Its former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad openly denied the Holocaust. Jew-hatred, not just a colonialist view of Zionism is at the heart of the Khomeinist regime. However, Jews are also a convenient tool for propaganda. Islamic Republic publicly touts its tolerance of Jews and Judaism, though Iranian Jewish community is significantly smaller than the regime claims, and though most are held hostage. They cannot criticize the regime, and if they leave, they are forced to forfeit all their property. Iran, however, has had open access to the United States and organized American Jewish community for many years.
It is no surprise, then, that its proxy Qatar has had accurate information which Jews of which leanings to target for its charm offensive, to make the best use of a propaganda opportunity: religious and conservative, much more likely to have influence with the current administration and the right-wing circles surrounding it. Iran has already succeeded in winning over much of the left-leaning Jewry at least with respect to the nuclear deal through the unified force of Jewish Democrats around President Obama. Though some Jewish organizations were openly critical of the deal, on an individual level, left-leaning Jews are still reluctant to criticize the process, or, for that matter, the outcome even over a year into the new administration when more and more revelations about its shortcomings are coming into light. On the surface, the use of the influential Jews to push Qatar PR appears straightforward. Qatar, through a Jewish lobbyist, offered free trips to well known members of the community to visit the country for a series of high level meetings with top officials, including the Emir.
Few passed up such an opportunity, and even those who initially did, such as ZOA’s Mort Klein, eventually changed their minds. Although Klein was more critical the rest, the overall impression with which all these individuals, including Alan Dershowitz among others, came away with is that Qatar is open to engaging with Israel, the rumors of its support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are likely outdated, there is room for dialogue, Qatar’s rivals are at least as bad, if not worse, Qatar has suffered as a result of its pro-growth progressivism, and the future with Qatar is bright. Needless to say, such comments engender intercommunal divisions, and heated conversation within the community, with various people speculating about why some but not others were invited, and whether or not all these influencers were justified in taking free trips in exchange for spouting Qatar government line.
However, as the Israeli embassy, criticizing this move by Qatar has put it, this is not about repairing relations with Israel, but rather influencing Washington. Indeed, let’s look at the outcome: the Jewish public opinion has begun to shift towards Qatar; President Trump, after holding high level talks with Qatar officials, has instituted an annual US-Qatar dialogue, a heavy blow to the ATQ, and furthermore plans to invite the GCC to Cape David by May to try to convince them to lift the blockade (which the ATQ appears to be firm on).
Despite all the heavy lobbying in DC, the Saudis appear to have lost in the court of public opinion, just as Qatar has succeeded in portraying itself as a victim of greater forces, and gained sympathy in its status as an apparent underdog. But what has the Jewish community gained as a result? Despite generic comments about the utility of ongoing dialogue, so far Qatar has not shifted on any substantive positions. For instance, it denies that Al Jazeera is government-sponsored, much less that Qatar can take any action in making it less anti-Jewish. It has created bitter rivalry among the many Jewish factions, without substantively admitting to ever having a poor record, nor making any concrete promises. It failed to concretely agree to move away from supporting Iran, should the Saudi blockade be lifted (and that, rather than Al Jazeera, is actually at the heart of the ATQ concern – interestingly, left largely unaddressed by the Jewish critics). And other publications, such as the Middle East Monitor, and Al Monitor, which are funded by Qatar, continue to print virulently anti-Jewish content, not to mention conspiracy theories about Saudi Arabia. There appears to be little done in the way of remorse and “return” on Qatar’s side.
A Much Bigger Game Being Played
But those who believe that for Iran, getting Jews to fight with each other, and scoring some points with the Trump administration is the end result, are missing that this is not just about crude diplomacy. Iran’s strategy is heavily based in intelligence operations, and “Jews4Qatar” is without a question, an active measure as much as it is a public diplomacy move by the Qatar government. For instance, regardless of whether any of the Jewish influencers were actually paid, in addition to taking the free trip, the speculation that they were in fact paid adds to the existing innuendo in certain foreign policy circles that Jews value Israel’s security above that of the US, or, for that matter, that Jews are greedy and will agree to work for any foreign government in exchange for money, or that Jews are spies at behest of anti-US forces.
Whether or not anyone has actually been paid, getting a free trip from the government for the purpose of advocacy, makes these individuals subject to manipulation potentially, and for all any intelligence professional knows, Qatar has pressured them to comply in other ways, such as blackmail, that could be revealed if ever they change their tune. Regardless of anything else that happened or will happen, accepting free trips, followed by open and one-sided advocacy attempts creates an appearance of impropriety. There is little doubt that the same or similar influencers in the future will be asked to do greater favors to Qatar “for the sake of continuing dialogue” and with vague promises of improved relations with Israel.
They have, in effect, have become assets of foreign intelligences, and likely Iran, as much as Qatar. Iran has once again managed to create a path towards influence inside the otherwise hostile administration, just as its fortunes appeared to be waning through the sanctions imposed by Trump. The heated debate over Muslim Brotherhood and Al Jazeer has deflected attention from Qatar’s financing of IRanian and Turkish operations in African and elsewhere, which are by far the bigger problem at the moment.
And now that the Jewish community leaders have concluded that Qatar’s past misdeeds are a nothingburger, there is a reluctance to question or judge its current, far more dangerous activities. Iran will from now on use Qatar as a proxy to once more indirectly win favors with the power circles in Washington in elsewhere, while simultaneously undermining its rivals. By attracting Qatar and weakening the GCC, Iran scored additional points. Whether or not Qatar itself wins anything out of this alliance remains to be seen, but so far, unlike the ATQ, it has been successfully able to play all sides, while changing nothing of value in its own policies.
Exploiting ATQ Divisions in Yemen
Iran, no doubt, delights in the daylight between the United States and ATQ in Yemen over the humanitarian crises. Saudi Arabia attempted to mitigate the damage to its public image by a big financial aid investment into the war-torn country, but that move went largely unnoticed. What’s worse, however, is that the ATQ resolve in Yemen has begun to falter, and the proxy factionalism among the coalition is tearing up the country still further. Most recently, the internationally recognized Yemen government, backed by the Saudis, was seen holed up and awaiting an opportunity to flee the country, under pressure from an UAE-backed separatist group, which is looking to build a separate country inside Yemen, further destabilizing an already chaotic situation. Who is right and who is wrong in this situation is completely irrelevant, because these divisions are precisely what the Iran-backed Houthis and Iran herself is looking to exploit.
UAE should ask itself what purpose is being served to its larger security and geopolitical concerns vis-a-vis Iran, while it’s settling scores with Saudi Arabia through these proxy groups, which, for all anyone knows, have been paid off by Iran and Houthis to set the ATQ against each other and make it that much more difficult to achieve significant victories against Houthis. And the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should ask himself whether engaging with UAE provocations, rather than finding a way to either unify these groups, or work together to back one group, that is more likely to stabilize the country, is more like to first, achieve Saudi Arabia’s security goals in Yemen, second, strengthen the ATQ, third, empower his own leadership in the region, and fourth, have him taken more seriously as a military strategist, rather than an amateurish young upstart by the would-be Western partners, Iran, and eveybody else. These increased rivalries are distracting, unhelpful, and make it easy for Iran to keep playing its games, manipulating different actors and factions, distracting from security breaches closer to home for all countries, giving way to terrorists, and otherwise paving way for the downfall of the monarchies.
The “Olive Branch” attack on Kurds in Afrin
Amazingly, Turkey’s unilateral and unprovoked attack on Syrian Kurds in Afrin,, which has thus far, killed hundreds of people, including approximately 80 Kurdish civilians, while met with silence or gentle rebuke from the United States and the international community, managed to sour US relations with both the attackers and the victims. US struggled to maintain relations with both sides, because Turkey is a NATO member, and Kurds have been strong allies in the battle against ISIS, and Western-oriented; however, Turkey’s increasingly brazen human rights violations are making US neutrality increasingly untenable. Turkey is pressing forwards; its attacks on Kurds consist of largely aerial bombardment at this point.
However, should it succeed in conquering strategic hills, it may proceed in the direction of US troops. What will happen at that point is anyone’s guess. Faced with Kurds feeling US betrayal, with Assad’s government likewise on the offensive and increasingly hostile to US presence, and with Erdogan increasingly acting as if he no longer needs US partnership on any level, US is finding itself in an increasingly tough spot in Syria. Practically announcing that the administration will not try to roll back Iran’s presence in the area, or destroy the land corridor through Iraq, greenlights Iran’s more aggressive operations in Syria, and its quest onwards, through the weakened and chaotic territory where US is losing allies and has no clear goals.
Swallowing Up Iraq
Just as the United States is starting to wake up to the fact that Baghdad is essentially an Iranian proxy, Iran is building up its presence through its area. It is also building schools and universities in the attempt to spread its version of Shi’a Islam, just as Baghdad is looking to Arabize Kurdish areas, and destroy indigenous languages, traditions, and sense of identity. Iran-backed militia Hashd Al-Shaabi endangers ethnic and religious minorities residing in Iraq; the KRG has been forced into negotiations with an Iranian proxy, just as the United States continues to oppose Kurdish independence and support the fiction of federalism under an Iran proxy in the hopes that such appeasement will prevent further destabilization and preserve Iraq as a state.
That is, of course, precisely what Iran was hoping for. In time, it can pursue further pressure on the Kurds, sow divisions among already tense parties, and destroy any cohesiveness from within, particularly if Iran’s plans continue to be met with US tacit acquiescence. None of it bodes well for anyone opposing Iran’s plans of dominating the region. Iran in the past had supported Salafist Kurds, and created a group of uncontrollable radicals; it may continue to do so in the future to ensure that Kurds never resort to an attempt to unify against the bigger adversary in the future.
Exploiting Daylight between Israel and the United States on Lebanon
To Iran’s undoubted delight, just as Israel threatened to attack Lebanese army for its visible embrace of Hizbullah, which, by this point has subsumed most of the institutions in Lebanon, even exercising influence over Christians, the United States stepped up in her defense, praising the Lebanese military for being an important ally. Once again, the United States prefers to maintain the illusion of an old, long-bygone alliance, even if such position threatens the security of another real ally.
Thus, the United States carries water for Iran in denying public backing to Israel’s legitimate concerns about Lebanon essentially becoming Hezbullah’s proxy, while isolating Sunni Muslims, Druze forced to navigate among the different factions, and those of the Christians and Shi’a dissidents that have been paying the price for their opposition. Meanwhile, Hezbullah and Hamas have been growing closer, with Iran being the common source of funding. They are training together, sharing intelligence, building up infrastructure of Israel’s northern border and otherwise acting in concert to create a united and stronger front against Israel.
US sanctions against individuals and intelligence-related entities in Iran barely sting. US has failed to enforce its own designation of Qasem Soleimani; whether it will actually enforce its designation of all the human rights abusers, terrorists, and ballistic missile builders it has recently put on its blacklist remains to be seen – but if any of those people are involved in countries which the United States has de facto recognized as Iranian spheres of influence, they have nothing to fear. The situation is more somber than the analysts care to admit; Iran has actually increased its influence in Africa, and its reach all over the world. The rumors of its impending demise due to internal weaknesses has been greatly exaggerated.
Right now, half of its opposition is not in contact with the other half; its peripheral regions have little pull within the regime itself, nor weapons for any revolutionary activity. They are poorly funded and have little voice or influence in the EU or the United States. Moreover, if the regime prospers as a result of its increased influence campaign in Africa and other regions, it may, at some point, throw a bone of prosperity to a portion of its population (of course, at the expense of some country it will colonize), quelling tensions for a while. The greatest of Iran’s weapons, however, is the world’s indifference to the fate of the countries it conquers, and their peoples.
Iran has delighted in observing the willful blindness of the US foreign policy apparatus, and greedy corruption of European states. Manipulating easily deluded people ignorant of the Islamic Republic’s larger designs has been a walk in the park. Iran will continue unabated on its destructive path, utilizing the grenades of instigating random conflicts and exploiting existing divisions of the allies united against it, while exacerbating any weakness that it sees, spreading disinformation, confusion, and a campaign of pain. Those of us who see what is actually going can only throw up our hands in exasperation, because what seems blatantly obvious as merely pieces of a much bigger picture, seems to blindly accepted by the people with most interest not to fall for Iranian fool’s gold.