he indiscriminate slaughter of Alawite civilians in Syria by Islamist gunmen affiliated with the country’s new Sunni Muslim regime has led to urgent questions about the nature of the government taking shape northeast of Israel.
“The mask has fallen. But let’s look at things in a slightly broader perspective,” Dina Lisnyansky, an expert on the Middle East and radical Islamic movements and a research fellow at Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told JNS on Wednesday.
For decades, she noted, Syria’s Sunni majority had been under the control of a small Alawite minority.
“The rule of the Alawites manifested itself during the rule of the Assad dynasty. In their effort to impose an absolute dictatorship they massacred a great many Sunnis,” said Lisnyansky.
This policy of mass killings shaped the course of the civil war that began in 2011, as dictator Bashar Assad tried to stabilize Alawite rule, she continued.
“The Sunnis were forced to become refugees, whether within or outside their own country. At the same time, they were being murdered in massive numbers. Assad simply massacred them without mercy to stabilize his rule for an entire decade.
“The goal of the new regime is not only to establish the rule of Sunni Islamist Ahmed al-Sharaa, but much more than that. There is also a very strong desire for revenge,” she said.
‘Uzbeks, Tajiks, a lot from the Caucasus’
Lisnyansky disclosed the identity of the fighters currently committing mass killings against the Alawites on the coastal strip in western Syria, mainly in Latakia and Tartus. Rather than just local Sunnis, she said, “very often, we find those who are carrying it out are Islamists recruited as Mujahideen, jihadist fighters, who came to support the Sunnis in Syria.
“So, we find a great many Islamists, both those who joined Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HTS, the rebel coalition led by al-Sharaa that took over Syria in December], and those who belonged to ISIS beforehand.
“We are seeing a lot of Uzbeks, a lot of Tajiks, a lot from the Caucasus, such as Chechens and Dagestanis. We are seeing that those participating in the massacre are the same people who participated in the conquest of Syria, in the months leading up to the rise of al-Sharaa,” she said.
While Turkey did not orchestrate the massacre, it is part of a wider Sunni attempt to completely take over Syria, said Lisnyansky.
“Another thing we are seeing is the unbelievable numbers. Within 48 hours, they were able to kill, based on various reports, between 1,500 and 4,000—and I even heard a report of 6,000 in one place—Alawites. Together with Alawites, they are also massacring Christians.”
Syria’s Christians went from comprising 8% of the population before the civil war, to currently being just 2%, she said.
Al-Sharaa is playing the role of the “good cop,” she said, vowing to bring to justice those who took part in the massacre, but there are good grounds to be skeptical over such claims.
“It’s very clear that if the central regime did not want these things, they would not happen, because these are not just local Islamist initiatives. Those taking part in the killings have fought for years under al-Sharaa’s command. They’re not suddenly rebelling against al-Sharaa. They’re simply continuing the ideology.”
Lisnyansky suggested that Israel should take a cautious but firm approach to the evolving situation in Syria.
“We have to understand that there is a new regime here, with certain ambitions, and that Turkey stands behind it with its own highly ambitious goals of spreading out regionally. This means that if we do not want to find ourselves in a frontal clash with Turkey, we must proceed cautiously.”
She emphasized that while Israel does not want direct confrontation, it has a clear interest in maintaining a buffer zone to prevent instability from spilling over its borders. She also noted that protecting the Druze population aligns with both Israeli and broader regional interests.
“It is logical that Israel should expand its buffer zone in Syria. There is logic in protecting the [south Syrian] Druze. There is logic in an alliance that serves not only Israeli interests but also regional interests,” said Lisnyansky.
‘The product of a counter-coup’
Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior officer in IDF Military Intelligence, and former adviser to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, told journalists on a conference call organized on Tuesday by the Jerusalem Press Club that “the recent events that unraveled in western Syria are the product of a counter-coup led by former officers of the 4th Division, once led by Maher Assad, the brother of deposed president Bashar Assad.
“Together with some involvement by Iran and Hezbollah, they tried in fact to foment a putsch against the [new] regime.
“Let’s remember that Bashar Assad is responsible for the deaths of 600,000 Syrians and the disappearance of more than 60,000 Syrians,” he said.
“Chechen and Uyghur militias entered into the Alawite provinces and were responsible for the recent killings and executions carried out there,” Neriah added,
Saying that Israel “destroyed all of the arsenals of Assad’s army,” he added, “We just went into the demilitarized zone that existed between us and Syria since 1974, and went even further … while claiming a sort of patronage over the Druze.”
Neriah argued that since the enemies of Israel from the Shi’ite axis— Hezbollah and Iran—have been defeated in Syria, Israel can tone down its approach toward the new Syrian regime and try to avoid conflict with it.
No marches in London or New York
However, the Israeli government appears to take a far more distrustful view of the new regime.
On Tuesday, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel warned that “the international community must understand that this is ethnic cleansing, and the current Syrian regime has taken off its mask and revealed its true nature: a radical jihadist organization.”
She criticized the lack of international response, saying, “You won’t see marches in the streets of London or New York. No one will fight for the murdered Alawites. No one will demonstrate in the streets of Paris to protect families being slaughtered, and no one will set up a camp at Columbia University to save the Christian or Druze communities in Syria.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the peak of Mount Hermon on Tuesday, arriving at IDF outposts in the buffer zone with Syria together with Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Tamir Yadai and Brig. Gen. Yair Palai, commander of the 210th “Golan” Division.
“Every morning, when Julani [al-Sharaa] opens his eyes in the Presidential Palace in Damascus, he will see the IDF watching him from the heights of Mount Hermon and will remember that we are here, and in all the security zones of southern Syria, to protect the residents of the Golan and the Galilee from any threat posed by him and his jihadist associates,” said Katz.
“The IDF is preparing for an indefinite stay in Syria. We will hold the security zone and Mount Hermon and ensure that all security areas in southern Syria are demilitarized and free of weapons and threats, and we will also protect the safety of the Druze in the region,” he added.
Referring to a series of Israeli airstrikes on Syria on Monday, Katz added, “Last night, we acted forcefully against military targets and struck more than 40 objectives in the southern Syria region to implement our announced policy and to thwart threats against the State of Israel. We will strengthen our ties with local residents, and soon, on the 16th of the month, Druze will begin working in Golan Heights communities.”