Syria, along with the rest of the Middle East, is undergoing unprecedented changes and Israel has announced its intention to protect its borders. As part of this effort, the Israel Defense Forces reported that this week, its fighter jets targeted “radar systems and detection equipment used to construct an aerial intelligence picture,” as well as “headquarters and military sites containing weapons and military equipment belonging to the Syrian regime in southern Syria.”
Those questioning Israel’s actions aimed at preventing jihadists from accessing chemical and other weapons need look no further than the massacre of Druze, Christian and Alawite civilians that occurred last week. These crimes should not surprise anyone familiar with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, the unrepentant jihadist Abu Mohammad al-Julani who now goes by the name Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University told JNS, “As the weaker party, al-Sharaa must either normalize relations with Israel and fully address Jerusalem’s security concerns, or accept the continued presence of the IDF within Syria. The choice is al-Sharaa’s.”
Al-Sharaa, who has appointed himself president of Syria, is not fooling Israel, as noted by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who has warned others not to believe the former’s supposed transformation from jihadist to statesman. Israel views HTS and other Turkey-backed groups aiming to conquer Syria as a serious threat.
For this reason, Israel is working to minimize any threats in the post-Assad era. For example, IAF fighter jets have flown at a low altitude over Syria in recent days, sending a message to the Syrian regime that Israel will protect the Druze who fear being massacred like the Alawites.
At a recent military ceremony in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the new Syrian government, outlining Israel’s strategy since the fall of the Assad regime.
His speech emphasized three key points. First, Netanyahu said Israel would not permit the new Syrian government to deploy forces south of Damascus, calling for the “full demilitarization” of that area—specifically Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida provinces.
Second, Netanyahu positioned Israel as a protector of the minority Druze community, aligning with Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent statements about strengthening ties with “friendly populations” in southern Syria.
Third, Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s commitment to protecting its borders, asserting that Israeli forces would remain “indefinitely” in the buffer zone and Mount Hermon area.
As part of the changes taking place within Syria, reports indicated that the Druze in southern Syria and the Kurds in the north are moving toward forming a geographically continuous alliance. This area encompasses the entire Syria-Jordan and Syria-Iraq borders, covering a vast territory.
However, this week, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an agreement with al-Sharaa, agreeing to a complete cessation of hostilities and the handover of the region’s border posts, airport and vital oil and gas fields.
The agreement also recognizes the Kurdish minority as “an integral part of the Syrian state” and guarantees “the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process.”
Druze militias in Sweida Province may soon sign a deal like the SDF.
The Kurds and the Druze
IDF Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told JNS “the chances are low” of the Kurds and Druze establishing a geographically continuous alliance, “as the Kurds have already reached an agreement with the new government about their integration.”
Yanarocak said that the claims regarding an alliance “are unfounded.”
He also said that while these claims “are particularly voiced in the Turkish media, attempting to portray Israel as part of this alleged alliance,” the fact is that these assertions “do not reflect reality.”
“It seems highly unlikely that the Druze or Kurds could establish control over such a large area,” he told JNS, adding that “the realization of this conspiracy theory appears to be a highly remote possibility.”
Meanwhile, Israel has threatened to intervene to protect the Druze from the Damascus government, which it considers a threat.
The U.S.-backed SDF has controlled a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Syria since 2015. The agreement, if implemented, would bring that territory under the full control of the Syrian central government led by al-Sharaa.
As HTS works to control Syria, Turkey plays a large role in shaping the country’s new government.
Yanarocak told JNS it is evident that Israel and Turkey “are engaged in a game of chess, particularly concerning Syria.”
“Both sides are trying to limit each other’s sphere of influence without causing direct harm,” he said. “Following Netanyahu’s speech regarding southern Syria, it is clear that tensions between Jerusalem and Ankara will escalate.”
According to Kuperwasser, Turkey “supports and guides the al-Sharaa regime,” adding that Turkey is “against an alliance between the various minorities.”
Yanarocak told JNS that Turkey’s “main concern” is the Kurdish Yekîneyên Parastina Gel—People’s Protection Units, or YPG—the armed wing of the Syrian-based Democratic Union Party (PYD) composed mostly of Kurds.
“At this stage, Turkey’s primary objective is to address this problem both through the peace process it initiated domestically with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and via the Damascus government within Syria,” Yanarocak said. “As of now, there is no concrete achievement. The resolution of this issue will depend on whether the U.S. withdraws from the region or if the situation becomes even more complicated.”
In addition to the question of whether the U.S. will pull out of the region, while Israel demands the demilitarization of Syria, al-Sharaa is demanding that the IDF leave Syrian territory.
Kuperwasser told JNS he believes Israel will be able to stand up to al-Sharaa “for the foreseeable future, as the Syrian regime is not strong enough to face the IDF.”
As events in the Middle East move quickly, the weeks ahead are mostly unpredictable.
Even so, Kuperwasser believes that al-Sharaa “will be able to consolidate his power, but will have to come to terms with the Druze in the south.”
Yanarocak said al-Sharaa’s statements and actions “are completely at odds with Israel.”
“Israel will no longer pursue a passive policy as it did before October 7, [2023],” he said. “Instead of merely reacting to developments, we now see an Israel that actively shapes events. … This marks a significant strategic shift.”