The elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has enormous implications. Haniyeh was the guest of the Iranian regime. In the Middle East, when someone comes to visit you, you are obliged to protect him, no matter what the cost. For some, that obligation can mean protecting that guest even if one must sacrifice one’s obligation to protect one’s own family from harm. Not doing so or even not being able to do so heaps shame on you. (In the Middle East, shame is defined by what others say about you, not what you think about yourself.)
Haniyeh was the honored guest of the Iranian regime and was treated accordingly. He wasn’t housed at a hotel but at the compound of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the regime’s shock troops. This compound is reserved exclusively for the IRGC and, to the best of our knowledge, is also used to guard special guests like Haniyeh.
So, the fact that Israel was somehow able to eliminate Haniyeh in one of the regime’s most protected compounds makes the Iranian government the laughing stock not only of Iran but most likely the entire Muslim world.
In the Muslim world, a person, group or country must avenge a humiliation in order to regain their honor. Not doing so, either because you are incapable or unwilling or both, is understood as a sign that you are weak.
Middle Easterners despise weakness, no matter why people are weak. When Middle Easterners smell weakness, they strike. The reason for weakness, even if someone is wounded, sick or anything else, doesn’t matter. If the humiliated party cannot take revenge, those closest to him must do so in his place.
That is what the Iranian government now faces. It must avenge Haniyeh’s death as soon as possible. Those in power in Iran must know this. If they don’t do it, they risk being overthrown at home because they appear to be extremely weak.
But what can they do? Israel has shown both in Tehran and in Beirut that it can get to anyone, anywhere. This must put the fear of God into the hearts of Iran’s decision-makers.
If the Iranian regime waits to take revenge, it is demonstrating to its people that it is weak. The regime cannot afford to do this, because its leaders know that most Iranians hate them and would like nothing better than to overthrow them.
We know this because of how the Iranian people responded to Iran’s April 14 attack on Israel. For example, people wrote graffiti in the streets begging Israel to strike the regime and they would do the rest.
But Iranians are fearful by nature. When they announce grandiose plans to do something against their enemies, they are actually signaling to those around them that they are afraid, and “please protect me because I fear what my opponent will do to me.”
In other words, the Iranian regime is between a rock and a hard place. Damned if it responds and damned if it doesn’t.
So, what should Israel’s (and America’s) policy be? At the moment, they have an indication that Iran is about to strike. Thus, Israel should launch a massive strike on the regime’s ability to continue to oppress its own people and supply its proxies, ending the Iranian threat to Israel, its Sunni neighbors and the world once and for all. That should include, most importantly, the centers of the regime’s power, meaning Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Iran’s Fuhrer—and those around him.
Given the events of the past few days, anything less would be the equivalent of putting a Band-Aid over an infected wound without antibiotic cream. It would prolong everyone’s suffering.
Our experience in Iran teaches us that when the ruling regime appears weak, the Iranian people rise up and are prepared to do anything to eliminate the rulers who oppress them. The moment they lose fear, they are capable of doing the cruelest things to their oppressive rulers and instantly look towards others who will save them from their misery.
They are, to use a Persian phrase, “Bot parast”—they worship strong men, meaning powerful people.
In such a situation, power is all that matters. There are no moderates. Democracy and similar beautiful concepts we have in the West are not part of their culture.
Iran is a paper tiger. Even some of its allies, such as China, recognize how weak and disorganized it is. Prof. Fan Hongda, for example, a frequent “private” sounding board for official views, has spoken of the Chinese’s contempt for Iranian security.
Our job is to eliminate the Iranian threat for good. From what Israel has demonstrated over the past few days, it looks to the untrained observer that Israel—with the possible help of its allies—should be able to accomplish this task.