Louis René Beres
After Assad: Recalibrating risks of an Israel-Iran nuclear war
Special to Israel National News
At first glance, the fall of Syria’s Assad dictatorship was net-gainful for Israel. Nonetheless, Iran’s military nuclearization continues to accelerate, and the Islamic leadership in Tehran has no credible reason...
Dialectics of a Different War: How Syria’s Collapse Could Impact Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence Against...
Though the fall of Syria’s Assad would appear gainful for Israel prima facie, a potential nuclear threat from Iran not only remains, but is plausibly greater than before. One reason for such a counter-intuitive...
Taking Nuclear War Seriously Israel’s Complex Obligations
"Recent events in Syria underscore the changing geo-strategic landscape in the Middle East. For Israel, though the fall of Assad will likely weaken Iran, it won't necessarily reduce the risk of a nuclear war...
Nuclear Escalation Doctrine: Impact of American and Russian “Firebreaks” on Israel’s Security
The conceptual and historical background
Soon, Israel will need to make critical decisions on launching preemptive strikes against Iran. Such non-nuclear defensive actions – expressions of anticipatory self-defense” under international law – would take calculated...
For Israel, a “Bewitching” Threesome: Iran, Russia and North Korea
When shall we three meet again?In thunder, lightning, or in rain?
The Three Witches in Macbeth
Bad things can sometimes come in threes. For Israel, issues of enemy nuclearization are many-sided, intersecting and “bewitching.” Even while...
Israel, Iran, and Nuclear War: A History of the Future
For Israel’s military planners, issues of Iranian nuclearization are increasingly bewildering and many-sided. Even while Israel remains the only regional atomic power, a nuclear war is not out of the question. More precisely, even...
Power, Presence and “Nothingness”: Trump’s Election Could Imperil Israel’s Survival
“…all is power and presence for me here, where the theme of nothingness rises still in smoke.”
Saint-John Perse, Exile
Though counter-intuitive, the US election of Donald J. Trump may not bode well for Israel’s survival....
Diverse narratives of an Israel-Iran War” avoiding intellectual conquest
“It must not be forgotten that it is perhaps more dangerous for a nation to allow itself to be conquered intellectually than by arms.” Guillaume Apollinaire, The New Spirit and the Poets (1917)
Israel’s power...
Israel and its terrorist foes, clarifying legal differences
From the standpoint of international law, there is a basic legal distinction between jihadist terror violence and Israel’s no-choice response to such violence. Whether Israel is operating against Shi’ite Hezbollah in Lebanon or Sunni...
Israel’s Force-Multiplying Nuclear Hazards: The Russia Factor
Israel’s nuclear hazards are neither singular nor isolable. Always, they are several and intersecting. Moreover, especially if Jerusalem looks closely at potential crisis interventions from Moscow or Pyongyang, these hazards could be force-multiplying or...