The political direction of Bucks County, Pennsylvania, could signal how much impeachment will sway the 2020 election – which is not much. Yet the Jewish vote there will almost certainly sway the election in a state that will tip the presidential election one way or the other.
Pundits are questioning if the impeachment inquiry conducted by the House of Representatives will cost Democrats their majority in the House. What they overlook is the prospect that some Republicans may lose their jobs – like Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick who represents Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania.
I strongly doubt if impeachment will affect the election except to compound attitudes toward President Trump and the Republican Party. The impeachment inquiry centers on accusations that Trump attempted to extort Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden, son of Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden, and it could expand to obstruction of justice, violation of the Constitution’s emoluments clause and other offenses.
Whoever the Democrats nominate, I believe that their candidate will win the presidential election and provide sufficient coattails to retain the House majority and retake control of the Senate.
Of course, this does not mean all Democrats will be re-elected, and the Democratic nominee for president may run such a clumsy campaign that Trump gets re-elected. In addition, Trump could leave the White House through impeachment or resignation long before the election, and a different Republican, such as Vice President Mike Pence, will run. Plus, circumstances could change otherwise.
The Jewish vote saved Fitzpatrick’s political hide last year. Yes, that is my personal opinion, but Fitzpatrick held on with 51 percent of the vote. Jews in Bucks County were caught between supporting Democratic domestic policies and fearing the election of a pro-Palestinian Democrat.
Fitzpatrick was challenged by Democrat Scott Wallace whose foundation donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to groups that support the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, according to The Forward. Wallace subsequently issued strong statements pledging to back Israel, but that was not sufficient to elect him in a county that is home to an estimated 50,000 Jews.
Yet Democrats in the other three counties surrounding Philadelphia were elected to the House while New Jersey’s elections ended with 11 Democrats and one Republican sent to the House. Less than a decade ago, the partisan divide in New Jersey was split evenly and all four suburban Philadelphia counties were represented by Republicans.
Most of these congressional districts are home to substantial Jewish populations, but only Wallace’s position on Israel was under question – while Hillary Clinton narrowly won Bucks County in 2016. Fitzpatrick, who received 53 percent of the vote in 2016, could face two overpowering obstacles 13 months from now – a Democratic presidential candidate with strong coattails for down-ballot candidates, and a challenger whose attitudes on Israel is not at issue.
If the 2018 elections are any guide, Trump cannot win a fair election next year. He must take the same states to get re-elected. Eeking out wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin put Trump over the top in 2016. Democrats were elected or re-elected as governors in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Kansas. In states besides Pennsylvania which Trump won, Democrats flipped House seats in Michigan, Georgia, Kansas, Iowa and Florida. Republicans almost lost a reliable House seat in North Carolina last month. A Democrat was narrowly elected to the Senate in Arizona.
As of last week, all but a dozen House Democrats supported an impeachment investigation, so most first-term representatives are confident that it will not impede their re-election campaigns.
Three California Democrats who flipped seats in once-reactionary Orange County – Harley Rouda, Mike Levin and Gil Cisneros – told The New York Times that constituents who contacted their offices in the past few weeks are overwhelmingly in support of the investigation.
Rep. Dean Phillips, who flipped a seat in Minnesota, said a number of Republicans and independents phoned his office voicing support for the inquiry, according to the Times.
Rep. Tom Emmer, also from Minnesota and chair of the GOP’s House campaign committee, countered that impeachment “will cost them their majority in 2020.”
Oh, yeah?
On Wednesday, Democratic Rep. Max Rose announced during a town hall meeting in Staten Island that he will support the impeachment investigation, according to The City, a journalistic enterprise in New York. “I will support and I will defend the United States constitution,” he declared at a Jewish Community Center.
One more vote closer to unanimity among the Democrats.
Republished from San Diego Jewish World