A direct and protracted war between Israel and Iran is now very likely. Whatever its nuances, any such conflict will drive each adversary to seek “escalation dominance.” For the moment, such a war would pit an already nuclear Israel against a pre-nuclear Iran. Nonetheless, because all conceivable scenarios would be unprecedented, it is uncertain
whether Israel’s military advantage would translate into correlative advantages in terms of tangible war outcomes.
A key determinant of Israel’s presumptive bargaining advantage would lie in immediate policy shifts from “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” to “selective nuclear disclosure.”(1) The success of such shifts will depend, however, on the decision-making rationality(2)
of the Iranian leadership and on whether Israel fixes its operational focus on the prevention of a nuclear war, either intentional or unintentional.
All things considered, the best time for Israel to ensure “escalation dominance” and a permanently non-nuclear Iran should be now, while its Islamist enemy is still pre-nuclear. Though Israel’s recently tested (April 2024) capacity for missile defense against Iran was reassuring to Jerusalem,(3) even the best active defenses can never offer Israel a
full substitute for calibrated strategies of offense.(4) Only by preparing for “escalation dominance” in its approaching war with Iran can Israel prevent a more catastrophic nuclear war. Finally, because Iran maintains close security ties with an already nuclear North Korea, Jerusalem will have to consider that non-Islamist state adversary in all its calculations.(5)
Read the study here: https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/207ENGweb-Beres-Israel-Escalation-Dominance-Iran-1.pdf